Let me now give you a very brief analysis of the
economic situation in Hong Kong and also the state of your Chamber.
Last year, the local economy bounced back
remarkably well from the recession brought on by the financial crisis in east Asia in 1997
and 1998, but much of the real recovery emerged after we had met.
More importantly, along the way, the local business sector re-invented itself to
place the SAR at the forefront of the electronic market place of the future.
This year is also shaping up as a positive one for the economy and
business, although some business sectors are only slowly improving.
There will also doubtless be further developments on the e-commerce front as the
year progresses.
And the Mainland is poised to enter the World Trade Organisation (WTO) once some
further bilateral arrangements are concluded.
Next year, 2001, marks the 140th anniversary of your
Chamber (and the true start to the new Millennium) and we, therefore, have plans for a
grand celebration next spring marking this additional milestone in the Chamber's long
history. More details will be coming to you later this year.
I will now say a few words about how we see the prospects for the SAR economy,
local business and your Chamber.
The year was a positive one for the local economy, with the recovery much faster
than was even apparent when the 1999 annual report was being prepared for the printer a
few months ago.
Even more remarkable, however, was the Hong Kong SAR's re-positioning and
reinvention of itself as an electronic commerce, information technology and Internet
centre for the East Asian region.
Twelve months ago few in the community would have thought this possible,
especially in such a short time. I remind you that it was only on March 1, 1999, just 13
months ago, during the Budget speech that most people first heard the word
"Cyberport".
The SAR is now set to become one of the leading players in the adoption,
adaptation and application of these new cyberspace technologies to business practices
throughout the region.
Since the annual report went to press, we have learned that the local economy
recovered even more rapidly than we had thought in the final months of 1999 and this
recovery has continued into the New Year.
In the final quarter of last year, total output of goods and services (or GDP)
grew by a real (inflation adjusted) 8.7 per cent, representing the fastest rate of real
growth in 13 years.
More importantly, in the final quarter of the year, the economy turned the
corner in current dollar, or cash, terms, with nominal growth of 1.4 per cent.
In a deflationary situation, this latter figure is arguably more important than
the "real" number as it shows that the economy's
overall "cash flow" has improved even as prices have
continued to fall.
As a result of the better final quarter outcome, real growth for the full year
was 2.9 per cent.
When we met in this gathering a year ago, there was a gloom in that we were
still battling to emerge from recession. The share market, while it had recovered well
from its August 1998 low, was still only at some 13,300 points, double its low point, but
short of its pre-crisis record.
We are now in positive growth territory ¡V and the
first quarter of this year will show excellent growth on what was a weak quarter last
year.
External trade, which proved the engine of growth through the second half of
last year, shows no sign of slowing so far this year.
Total exports in the opening two months of the year were up almost 17 per cent
on 1999 and imports rose almost 11 per cent.
Retail sales in January were up 12 per cent in value terms and 20 per cent in
volume ¡V a reflection of continuing price discounts and
deflation.
But we have to remember these are coming off bad numbers last year.
Effectively this means we are still in rebound from the low point of recession
and now the real growth task begins as we start to measure ourselves against last year's
latter ¡V and better - quarters.
As I am sure you know, at our business summit in early December last year, we
predicted 4 per cent growth for the 2000 calendar year.
At the time, this was at the top end of the forecast growth range of most
analysts and some thought it a somewhat adventurous forecast.
But as a result of the faster than expected economic recovery the Chamber has
now upgraded our forecast growth rate for Hong Kong to 5.3 per cent for the calendar year
2000.
This is above the Government's 5 per cent forecast, but below that of many
private sector analysts. We expect inflation to average around a negative 1 per cent for
the year.
We could take an even more aggressive view of the growth outlook, but we
believe there is still a need for caution on some aspects of the economy.
We are mindful that local interest rates are still rising ¡V and, in real terms, are at record levels.
In Hong Kong, there have been two rate hikes this year totalling 0.5 per cent
and there may be some more on the way.
We are still in a deflationary mode ¡V the composite
consumer price index was down an average 5.2 per cent in the opening two months of the
year.
Money supply growth remains low, loans and advances have shown no real advance
and deposit growth is also slow.
Private sector investment remains weak, despite the birth of the "new
economy" which offers the promise of greater investment in
the near term.
The property market remains flat, as does the residential mortgage market.
This is positive for the costs of doing business, as is the wage situation, with
wages growth under control so far this year.
On the other hand, the US economy continues to surge ahead, drawing in imports,
especially from this part of the world.
China looks set for growth of 7 per cent plus, Europe is also stronger and the
rest of Asian is recovering at a rapid pace, Only Japan still looks weak, despite
occasional hopeful signs ¡V and is now in political transition.
Provided there are no major setbacks on the world economic stage, we look to be
on the threshold of a period of exciting and more rapid growth.
Nowhere is this more apparent in dramatic way the SAR has re-positioned itself
to take part in the electronic revolution that is changing the way business is done the
world over.
This will become all the more important as globalisation and regionalisation
continues and our Mainland sovereign gets ever closer to WTO entry with all the
opportunities that will bring in the further opening of the market.
The fortunes of your Chamber also have recovered quite nicely along with the
better performance of economy and the return of confidence to the local business
community. Our membership base has solidified, our programs are well attended, our
services have been expanded, our cost cutting has been substantial, and our revenue stream
is now steady. Like many of its member firms, the Chamber has come through the recent
economic downturn well.
Let me concentrate on some of the events that have occurred within the Chamber
since the beginning of the New Year.
First, since the end of the old year, the Chamber has take action
to ensure that it plays a greater role in the development of e-commerce in Hong Kong.
To help achieve this we have already established a special e-committee
and have been gratified by the number of Chamber members seeking to learn more about using
information technology to improve their competitiveness.
We are also actively seeking new members from amongst the large numbers of
e-commerce "new economy" companies now establishing
themselves in the SAR.
Our Web site at www.Chamber.org.hk was completely revamped these past few
months, and you will find its appearance user-friendly and its contents relevant and
timely. If you recall, our Web site was launched at the AGM in 1998, two years ago, long
before the current Internet hype, and through steady effort, it now has almost 100,000
page views per month from Hong Kong and overseas. If you have not accessed it, please do,
and you will find the information and the trade directory features quite useful.
Second, in addition to the establishment of the e-committee, we
have made some minor adjustments to the existing committee structure.
Committees formerly responsible for transport and shipping have merged into a
single committee.
Infrastructure, previously linked with transport, is to become part of a larger
property and infrastructure committee.
And, finally, the former CSI Statistics Committee has merged with the Economic
Policy Committee.
These should all help the advisory committee structure work more efficiently and
effectively.
Third, the Chamber issued in January a detailed business perspective
report on China's imminent entry to the WTO, its likely effects on Hong Kong businesses
and the challenges and opportunities China ¡¦s entry might bring
to all of us here in Hong Kong.
This report has been enormously well received with almost 800 copies of the
English language edition already sold ¡V and the Chinese
language edition will shortly be available to further help the entire local business
community.
The Chief Executive has personally told the Chamber the value of this report and
so have officials in China who are aware of this report. Many overseas business people
have also accessed our Web site to learn about this report.
Fourth, on February 1 the Chamber officially entered the highly
competitive Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) market with "Chamber CMG Choice", a
product jointly developed with our MPF alliance partner.
I urge all Chamber members to look at the Chamber product, which is as
competitive as any in the market, and which can provide you a "one-stop" solution to your MPF needs.
Fifth, for the first time in its history, the Chamber is now
accepting individual associate members on a non-voting basis, but with access to some of
the Chamber services.
This new class of individual associates ¡Xcoming from
businesses as well as government and academia¡Xadds even more
flexibility to our membership structure, which now also includes CO, overseas, and
Mainland associate members.
In summary, we are embarking on a new era of business development
for the Chamber. We should all be very pleased with the way the New Year has opened for
the Chamber and the work it does for its members.
For a quick glimpse into the immediate future, the Chamber has already taken the
decision to play an active role in the Government's two pronged review of the tax system,
now underway.
Elsewhere, we have also held to our firm positions on issues vital to the SAR
such as wages and civil service reform, the costs of doing business in Hong Kong and the
need to improve the environment.
These are all examples of your Chamber serving you in a constructive fashion and
on issues that are important to our future development.
We will continue to put your views forward throughout the year.
Let me now hear from a couple of our special interest committees and from our
legislative representative on what they accomplished during the year:
First I will call on Mr. Andrew Yuen, Chairman of the Americas
Committee, to report.
(Remarks by Andrew Yuen)
Thank you, Andrew. Next I will ask Dr. Lily Chiang, who is the Chairman
of the China Committee, to give us the details of the committee's1999 work.
(Remarks by Lily Chiang)
Thank you, Lily. Finally, I will ask our Legislative Representative, the Hon.
James Tien, to tell you about his work for 1999 on your behalf.
(Remarks by James Tien)
Thank you, James, and thank you all for your presentations. Let me thank all the
committees and their Chairmen and Vice Chairmen for their work for Chamber members. The
Annual Report contains more details on their work.
In closing, I would like to thank the members of the General Committee, my
deputy chairman and two vice-chairmen, the Chamber Director, Dr Eden Y Woon, and Chamber
staff for the excellent work they put in during the very productive year. Finally, thank
you all for being Chamber members. (Lead applause)
This concludes my remarks. Are there any questions or comments before formally
proposing the adoption of the Report of the General Committee and the Accounts for the
year ended 31 December 1999?
[At this point, go back to script]
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